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The most popular strategies for betting on football
acefootball.com 11/30/2020
Paddock strategy
Recently, the “Paddock” strategy has become extremely popular among bookmaker players. This strategy for football betting is quite simple, clear and yet very effective, which makes “Paddock” popular in the betting world.
The “paddock” strategy has been created for betting on total football matches in Live (bets in the course of the game). According to this strategy, you have to bet more on a total in matches where the probability of goals is very high if the first half ended with a score of 0-0. You can bet on TO (1.0), or TO (0.5) or TO (1.5), depending on the match and the preferences of the players. However, the TO (1.0) outcome is still the best option.
The “Paddock” strategy has logical grounds, which we will discuss in more detail. If a successful match is expected, then the odds for the total are lower in pre-match bets. But if the teams play 0-0 in the first half, the TO odds increase significantly. And since a goal in such matches is usually a matter of time, it makes sense to bet on TO during the break or after 55-60 minutes if you want to catch higher odds. It is also no secret that the second halves are statistically more effective than the first because in the second half of the game the teams start to take risks and make more mistakes in defence due to fatigue. Besides, many players who bet TO before the match when the score is zero during the break, placing bets on TU, which, of course, leads to an increase in the odds on TO.
Special programmes and websites can be used to identify matches in which a large number of goals are expected, or you can analyse the statistics yourself and find potentially effective football matches. When doing so, pay attention to how many teams score in the second half and how the matches of these teams usually end after 0-0 in the first 45 minutes.
For example, you have selected three matches in which, according to statistics, there must be at least two goals: Wolfsburg – Hamburg, Napoli – Lazio and QPR – Leicester. Surely, the first half of one of them will end with a score of 0-0. After the first half with a score of 0-0, you can bet on TO (1.0) at 1.45, which is quite good. It is rather unlikely that the game will end with a score of 0-0, so there will be a return in the worst case.
The “predictability” strategy makes it possible to calculate the approximate score of the match. Of course, this strategy cannot calculate the exact score, nor can any other strategy to determine the score of the match with high precision. However, by using this strategy, it is possible to determine the favourite and approximate score of the match, based on which it is possible to choose the most passable bets for a football match. This may not be exactly a strategy, but an approach to football betting, but it does not matter, as the information below makes it possible to place successful bets at bookmaker offices.
The “predictability” strategy is based on a formula by which players can determine the number of goals that will be scored by the home and away teams, thus predicting the most likely score.
- Determining the likely number of goals that the home team will score. To do this, you need to get the arithmetic average of goals scored in home matches, that is, find out how many, on average, a team scores in its field. And then add to this the average number of goals conceded by the away team in away matches. After that, we divide the resulting amount by two. This will allow us to find out the likely number of goals for the home team in the upcoming match. Let’s denote this value with the letter D.
- Calculating the most likely number of goals for the away team. First, find out the arithmetic mean of goals scored away by the guest team, and then add the arithmetic mean of goals conceded by the home team in home matches. And then we divide what happened by two. Thus, we will determine how many goals can be expected from the away team in this fight. And we denote this value by the letter G.
- We get the probable score, which is presented in the form of D: G. That is, D – goals scored by the home team, G – goals of the away team.
And now let’s move on from theory to practice. Consider the use of the “predictability” strategy on the example of the match Lille – Marseille. The first step is to calculate the D value. Lille scored 26 goals in 18 matches at home, on average 26/18 goals are scored in home games = 1.44 goals. Marseille conceded 20 goals in 18 away games, on average 20/18 = 1.11 goals. D = (1.44 + 1.11) / 2 = 1.27. The probable number of Lille goals in this match is 1.27, that is, most likely 1 goal, but maybe 2 goals.
The value of D has been calculated, so we proceed to the calculation of the indicator G. Marseille scored 32 goals in 18 away meetings, which is 1.77 goals per game on average. Lille conceded 8 goals in 18 home matches, that is, an average of 0.44 goals. G = (1.77 + 0.44) / 2 = 1.10.
What do we have? The probable score of this match is 1.27:1.10, that is, 1:1. Based on this, you can bet TO (2.5), both will score, 1X and so on.