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Maths genius who ‘predicted Covid’ says there’s only one way to halt pandemic

Daily Star 11/29/2020

Luthais McCash, who specialises in mathematical modelling, has hardly left his house since March and believes the virus will continue to wreak havoc for years to come

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Luthais McCash says he has made various warnings about leaving lockdown too early

A maths genius who claims to have predicted the course of the coronavirus pandemic has offered his theory of a solution.

Luthais McCash, research fellow at the University of Leicester, says he has made various warnings about leaving lockdown too early – and that all of his Covid-19 theories have so far come true.

The 26-year-old, from Kent, specialises in applied mathematics and mathematical modelling.

He believes the virus will continue to tear through the country for another two years, Kent Live reports.

Mr McCash, who has an auto-immune disease, says he has hardly left the house since March, except to walk the dog on beaches and to pick up a couple of takeaways with his partner.

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The University of Leicester research fellow specialises in applied mathematics and mathematical modelling

Earlier in the pandemic, he said he was correctly forecasting numbers for cases and deaths and sent his predictions in advance to people he "trusts".

But Mr McCash hasn't done specific modelling for how things might develop from here.

He added: “It's actually more difficult to make a prediction now. At the beginning a lot more of the population were doing as they were told. Now it's more difficult to predict because there's a lot of fluidity.

"I will say that I am hypothesising. But my view – and I hope I am wrong – is that it will never end unless we go for a suppression strategy.

"We will develop mechanisms to deal with it better, but it won't go away.

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Earlier in the pandemic, he said he was correctly forecasting numbers for cases and deaths

"We need to stop everything. We need a 12-month lockdown. I appreciate that that will have a massive effect on people's income, people's lives, but that's what's needed.

"That's sufficient enough time to reduce the movement substantially enough to allow the virus to suppress. It's no good saying we're coming down of lockdown because deaths are down or cases are down that's not good enough. There has got to be a period after too.

"I say that from looking at the rate of infection and secondly from looking at behaviour analysis.

"I am not a virologist or an immunologist but at the end of the day I am a scientist who is very passionate about empirical evidence.”

Mr McCash said his first academic paper, looking at how to model the spread of cancer, was published at the age of 16.

A local newspaper in Scotland where he grew up labelled him a “gene genius” the year afterwards.

He continued: ”I think people should social distance, wear masks, be vigilant, work together in the sense that you think: if you are in a shop and you are not wearing a mask, you are putting everyone at risk.

"At the moment people aren't following the rules. Come February there is going to be a strong increase in cases. There will be another lockdown by summer.

"This Tier system isn't going to help. As soon as you lift the local lockdown, people will migrate again.

"I said that in March we will be in this for at least two years and we are now eight months on. This will be cyclical – unless we do something about it."

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